The SUFAL initiative in Bangladesh developed a participatory, forecast-based flood early-action system linking scientific forecasts, community vulnerability assessments and predetermined protective measures. Implemented through cooperation between CARE Bangladesh, Concern Worldwide, RIMES, national disaster-management institutions and local communities, the approach introduced Early Action Matrices connecting flood forecasts and warning thresholds with specific preparedness actions. Community representatives, local disaster-management committees and public authorities contributed to defining risks, identifying exposed populations and selecting appropriate interventions. Vulnerability and inundation mapping informed locally adapted, impact-based forecasts and prioritisation of resources. The initiative was operationally tested during the 2020 monsoon floods, when SUFAL-supported community early actions reached approximately 100,000 people. Its subsequent expansion strengthened the integration of anticipatory action into national disaster-management arrangements and sectoral preparedness.
Map
Co-produced Flood Early Action Matrix
General Information
ISIG
SUFAL developed and implemented a participatory flood anticipatory-action approach in northern Bangladesh, allowing institutions and vulnerable communities to initiate protective measures before forecasted flooding occurs.
A central component was the Early Action Matrix, a structured framework connecting flood forecast scenarios, warning thresholds, expected impacts and predefined actions. RIMES collaborated with the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) and the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) to develop the framework, supported by consultations with local disaster-management committees, community representatives, sectoral organisations and public authorities.
Community-based vulnerability assessments and mapping contributed to identifying exposed settlements, assets and population groups. The resulting information informed impact-based flood forecasting and the prioritisation of anticipatory actions across sectors including agriculture, livestock, health, water and sanitation, evacuation and social protection.
During the 2020 monsoon, SUFAL supported community-level actions reaching approximately 100,000 people, providing practical evidence for the application of forecast-based preparedness mechanisms.
Bangladesh faces recurrent monsoon flooding, particularly in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna basin, where riverine communities experience repeated damage to housing, agricultural production, livestock, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Before SUFAL, national forecasting services provided flood information, but translating forecasts into timely local protective actions presented significant institutional and operational challenges. Forecasts were not always sufficiently localised, while the connection between warning thresholds, responsibilities, financing and concrete action was often unclear.
Communities also faced difficulties accessing understandable warnings and mobilising resources before flooding began. Existing emergency arrangements frequently prioritised response after impacts had occurred.
SUFAL was initiated in 2019 through a humanitarian consortium led by CARE Bangladesh, with European humanitarian support. Its approach aimed to strengthen impact-based forecasting, establish predetermined triggers for early action and enable vulnerable communities and public institutions to act before floods caused severe losses.
Hazard Type
Geographical Scope - Nuts
Population Size
Population Density
Needs Addressed
SUFAL addressed the difficulty of translating flood forecasts into timely and coordinated protective actions among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh.
Although forecasting and warning systems existed, local institutions and communities often lacked clearly defined thresholds, procedures and financial arrangements for initiating action before floods occurred. Forecast information was not always sufficiently localised to identify the households, infrastructure and livelihoods most exposed to anticipated flooding.
Institutional responsibilities were fragmented, and early-action financing was difficult to mobilise in advance. Vulnerable residents also faced barriers in receiving, understanding and acting upon warnings.
The initiative sought to overcome these challenges by linking impact-based forecasting with community vulnerability assessments, predefined triggers, institutional responsibilities and locally appropriate early actions.
SUFAL prioritised flood-exposed communities whose living conditions, livelihood dependence and limited resources increased their susceptibility to disaster impacts.
Particular attention was given to poor and marginalised households, women, children, older people, persons with disabilities and families dependent on agriculture, livestock and informal livelihoods.
SUFAL operated within Bangladesh's multi-level disaster-management system, combining national technical and policy responsibilities with local implementation and community participation.
The FFWC, under the Bangladesh Water Development Board, provided flood forecasting expertise. The DDM and the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief contributed institutional coordination and the integration of forecast-based action into national disaster-management arrangements.
At district, upazila and union levels, disaster-management committees and local government institutions participated in identifying vulnerabilities, defining practical actions and supporting implementation.
CARE Bangladesh led the humanitarian consortium, while Concern Worldwide and other implementing partners supported community engagement and preparedness activities. RIMES provided technical support for impact-based forecasting, risk mapping and Early Action Matrix development.
The governance model connected national forecasting and policy functions with local planning, implementation and feedback.
SUFAL introduced a structured anticipatory-action mechanism that enables public authorities and communities to prepare before forecasted flooding.
The Early Action Matrix connects forecast parameters and danger levels to predefined protective measures, providing a basis for operational procedures, institutional responsibilities and resource allocation.
Preparedness activities include community risk mapping, flood-warning dissemination, training, local disaster-management planning and arrangements for protecting livestock, livelihoods and household assets.
The model was tested during the 2020 monsoon and subsequently expanded to strengthen longer-lead-time, localised and impact-based forecasts, together with sector-specific early actions.
SUFAL operated through existing national hydrometeorological forecasting infrastructure, supplemented by local monitoring and communication improvements.
The FFWC provided flood forecasts and warning information, while RIMES supported the development of higher-resolution inundation information, vulnerability maps, digital elevation models and localised forecasting capabilities.
The programme also supported additional monitoring arrangements and the dissemination of warning information through mobile communication, community volunteers and digital display boards at local government offices.
These components strengthened the connection between technical monitoring infrastructure and community preparedness. Infrastructure availability remained uneven across geographical areas, making local adaptation essential.
Community engagement aimed to ensure that flood early-action measures reflected local vulnerabilities, livelihood priorities, available resources and realistic opportunities for protective action.
Consultations enabled residents and community representatives to identify exposed households, relevant risks and feasible responses to different flood scenarios. Local disaster-management committees participated in developing and validating early-action priorities.
The engagement process also strengthened communication between communities, technical forecasting institutions and public administrations, facilitating the translation of forecasts into locally actionable measures.
By integrating community perspectives into risk assessments, action matrices and disaster-management plans, SUFAL sought to increase local ownership and improve the effectiveness of anticipatory preparedness.
SUFAL employed multiple participatory methods, including community consultations, vulnerability and capacity assessments, stakeholder workshops, field-based mapping, training sessions and community preparedness activities.
Residents and local disaster-management committees contributed information about flood exposure, assets at risk, livelihood vulnerabilities and practical early-action priorities.
Participatory consultations informed the development of community-level Early Action Matrices, while institutional workshops involving the DDM, FFWC and other stakeholders supported the definition of forecast triggers and operational responsibilities.
Community engagement also included courtyard sessions, practical demonstrations, awareness activities and volunteer-supported warning dissemination.
Community participants influenced the design of SUFAL's anticipatory-action framework by identifying vulnerabilities, contributing to local risk mapping and recommending protective actions that could be implemented before floods.
Community representatives and local disaster-management committee members participated in consultations used to develop the community-level Early Action Matrix. Their inputs informed the selection and adaptation of actions, while local institutions contributed to integrating these measures into preparedness planning.
National technical agencies retained responsibility for official forecasting and the definition of technical warning parameters. Public authorities maintained formal responsibilities for disaster-management decisions and the allocation of public resources.
SUFAL strengthened community and institutional capacities to understand flood forecasts, assess likely impacts and initiate protective action before an emergency.
Community participants developed knowledge of flood risk, preparedness measures and available early-action options through consultations, training, demonstrations and practical implementation.
Local disaster-management committees gained experience in linking forecast information with predefined responses, while institutional actors strengthened their capacity for impact-based forecasting, trigger development and coordination.
The integration of early actions into local disaster-management planning and national policy discussions created opportunities for sustained institutional learning.
The programme also generated documented experience from the 2020 monsoon, supporting adaptation, replication and continued development of anticipatory-action systems.
Governance
Emergency Preparedness
Infrastructure Readiness
Engagement Level
Empowerment Level
Implementation
SUFAL introduced a participatory approach to forecast-based flood preparedness, linking scientific warning information with community-defined vulnerabilities and predefined protective actions.
Its principal innovation is the Early Action Matrix, which connects forecast parameters and flood danger thresholds to specific actions, responsible institutions and operational requirements. The matrix facilitates coordinated decisions before a forecasted disaster occurs.
The initiative combined this mechanism with community-informed vulnerability assessments, localised impact-based forecasting and multi-level institutional coordination. Geographic and exposure information was used to identify areas and population groups at risk.
A further innovation involved connecting anticipatory action with financing arrangements and social protection systems, creating opportunities to mobilise assistance before households experienced severe losses.
English and Bangla
CARE Bangladesh, consortium lead, with Concern Worldwide, Islamic Relief Bangladesh, RIMES and other national and local implementing partners.
CARE Bangladesh and Concern Worldwide have extensive experience implementing humanitarian assistance, community resilience and disaster-risk-reduction programmes.
RIMES contributes specialised expertise in multi-hazard early warning, hydrometeorological forecasting and risk-informed decision support.
The FFWC and DDM provide institutional experience in national flood forecasting, disaster preparedness and emergency coordination.
The consortium's combined capabilities enabled SUFAL to integrate technical forecasting improvements with participatory planning, community-based interventions, institutional capacity-building and operational learning.
- CARE Bangladesh — consortium leadership and programme coordination
- Concern Worldwide — humanitarian implementation and community-based anticipatory action
- Islamic Relief Bangladesh and other local implementing partners — community activities and preparedness support
- RIMES — technical support for forecasting, mapping and Early Action Matrix development
- Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) — official flood forecasts and warnings
- Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) — hydrological monitoring and forecasting infrastructure
- Department of Disaster Management (DDM) — disaster-management coordination and policy integration
- Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief — national institutional framework
- District, upazila and union disaster-management committees — local planning and implementation
- Community representatives, vulnerable households and volunteers — vulnerability assessment, consultation, communication and early action
- European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) — financial support
- Establish the institutional and technical partnership. Connect humanitarian implementing organisations with the DDM, FFWC, local administrations and disaster-management committees.
- Identify vulnerable communities and information needs. Conduct baseline assessments, consultations and community-level vulnerability mapping to identify exposure, capacities and priority risks.
- Strengthen forecasting and impact analysis. Develop localised flood information by combining hydrometeorological forecasts, inundation modelling and vulnerability data.
- Define early-action triggers. Establish forecast parameters and danger thresholds indicating when preparedness and protective measures should be activated.
- Co-produce the Early Action Matrix. Consult communities, local disaster-management committees, technical agencies and sectoral institutions to identify feasible actions under different forecast scenarios.
- Clarify operational responsibilities. Define which institutions and community actors implement each action, together with the necessary communication, coordination and resource arrangements.
- Build local capacities and disseminate warnings. Organise training, community preparedness sessions and communication activities to support understanding and application of early-action procedures.
- Activate protective measures. Use forecasts and established triggers to initiate agreed actions before flooding, including livelihood protection, evacuation preparedness and targeted assistance.
- Evaluate and refine the approach. Review implementation experience, collect stakeholder feedback and improve triggers, procedures, sectoral actions and financing mechanisms.
The initiative requires hydrometeorological forecasting services, technical expertise in impact modelling and vulnerability mapping, reliable data on population exposure, and institutional arrangements for issuing and interpreting flood warnings.
Human resources include forecasting specialists, disaster-management officials, humanitarian programme staff, local facilitators, community volunteers and representatives of vulnerable population groups.
Operational resources include communication infrastructure, training materials, mapping tools, local preparedness arrangements and mechanisms for coordinating early actions.
Financial resources are needed both for the development and maintenance of forecasting and planning systems and for the activation of protective measures before disasters occur.
August 2019-June 2021: SUFAL Phase I: development and testing of forecast-based early action in Kurigram, Gaibandha and Jamalpur
2020 monsoon: Operational activation of community-based early actions, supporting approximately 100,000 people
2021: Evaluation and consolidation of findings from the initial phase
July 2021-June 2025: SUFAL Phase II: geographical expansion, improved impact-based forecasting, sectoral integration and institutionalisation
2023: Publication of the SUFAL-II guidance on development of flood forecast-based action matrices and triggers
2024: Participation of the SUFAL consortium in a wider anticipatory response to Jamuna basin flooding, alongside UN agencies and humanitarian partners
Experience of the Implementing Organisation in DRM
Target Audience
Resources Required
Timeframe & Phases
Participation Results
SUFAL demonstrates that effective anticipatory action requires clear connections between scientific forecasts, local vulnerability information and predefined institutional responsibilities.
Community participation contributes to the selection of relevant protective measures and helps ensure that early-action planning reflects local livelihoods and constraints.
The Early Action Matrix provides a practical mechanism for translating forecasts into operational decisions, reducing uncertainty about when and how institutions should act.
The 2020 monsoon activation demonstrated the feasibility of implementing community-based early actions at scale, while subsequent work highlighted the importance of localised impact forecasting, anticipatory financing, institutional ownership and continuous evaluation.
A further lesson concerns the integration of anticipatory measures into existing disaster-management and social protection systems, supporting continuity beyond individual humanitarian interventions.SUFAL's sustainability strategy centres on integrating forecast-based anticipatory action into Bangladesh's existing disaster-management structures and planning procedures.
The Early Action Matrix provides a reusable framework through which national forecasting services, local administrations and disaster-management committees can coordinate protective measures. Its inclusion in operational procedures and local planning strengthens institutional continuity.
The programme also explored connections with national social protection mechanisms and anticipatory financing, with the objective of making resources available before disasters occur.
Training, stakeholder consultation, impact-based forecasting and repeated operational testing contribute to maintaining technical and organisational capacities.
However, sustainable implementation remains dependent on institutional commitment, functioning forecasting infrastructure, predictable financing and continued involvement of local communities.
SUFAL addressed several interconnected challenges in flood preparedness.
The limited localisation of flood forecasts was addressed through improved inundation modelling, vulnerability mapping and impact-based forecasting. These activities helped identify areas and sectors likely to experience significant impacts.
Fragmented responsibilities and the absence of predefined early-action procedures were addressed through the Early Action Matrix, consultations with national and local institutions, and the clarification of operational roles.
Barriers to warning accessibility and community preparedness were addressed through local communication, community volunteers, preparedness sessions and tailored dissemination mechanisms.
Difficulties mobilising resources before floods led to further work on anticipatory financing, social protection and the integration of early actions into local and national planning.
The evaluation process also highlighted the importance of strengthening institutional ownership and ensuring that local actors have the resources required to implement agreed actions.
SUFAL's risk-management approach links flood forecasts with anticipated exposure and predefined protective measures.
The Early Action Matrix establishes scenarios based on forecast parameters and danger levels, allowing authorities and communities to identify appropriate measures before flood impacts occur.
Vulnerability and inundation mapping support the prioritisation of exposed settlements, infrastructure and livelihood assets. Sectoral interventions include measures related to agriculture, livestock, health, water and sanitation, evacuation and social protection.
The programme also addresses risks associated with delayed decision-making, unclear responsibilities and limited warning access by establishing procedures for coordination, communication and early-action activation.
Risk & Mitigation Plan
Scalability and Sustainability
SUFAL's sustainability strategy centres on integrating forecast-based anticipatory action into Bangladesh's existing disaster-management structures and planning procedures.
The Early Action Matrix provides a reusable framework through which national forecasting services, local administrations and disaster-management committees can coordinate protective measures. Its inclusion in operational procedures and local planning strengthens institutional continuity.
The programme also explored connections with national social protection mechanisms and anticipatory financing, with the objective of making resources available before disasters occur.
Training, stakeholder consultation, impact-based forecasting and repeated operational testing contribute to maintaining technical and organisational capacities.
However, sustainable implementation remains dependent on institutional commitment, functioning forecasting infrastructure, predictable financing and continued involvement of local communities.
The SUFAL approach is transferable to flood-prone territories where forecasting capabilities exist but are insufficiently connected to local preparedness and early action.
Replication requires reliable forecasting information, locally relevant vulnerability assessments, predefined activation thresholds, stakeholder consultation and clear responsibilities for implementing protective measures.
The methodology can be adapted to different flood regimes, population characteristics and institutional settings. Sectoral early actions can be selected according to the needs of agriculture, livestock, health, water and sanitation, evacuation and social protection.
SUFAL's expansion from three northern districts to additional north-western and north-eastern districts demonstrates its geographical adaptability. Its continued development also illustrates opportunities for incorporating anticipatory-action principles into national disaster-management policy and planning.
Technology supports SUFAL through hydrometeorological forecasting, inundation modelling, geographic information systems, vulnerability mapping and warning dissemination.
RIMES assisted the FFWC in improving localised impact-based forecasts through digital elevation information, flood-modelling capabilities and exposure assessments.
The Early Action Matrix translates forecast information into structured operational guidance by connecting predefined thresholds with corresponding actions and responsibilities.
Warning information is disseminated through institutional channels, mobile communication and locally accessible mechanisms, including community volunteers and digital information boards.
The principal innovation is the integration of these technologies with participatory vulnerability assessment and coordinated anticipatory decision-making.
Direct implementation costs include technical development of localised forecasting and impact-modelling capabilities, vulnerability and exposure mapping, consultations, training, communication infrastructure and preparation of Early Action Matrices and associated operational guidance.
Recurring operational needs include maintaining forecasting and communication systems, updating vulnerability and exposure information, training disaster-management personnel, organising community preparedness activities and revising early-action procedures.