AF8 (Alpine Fault Magnitude 8) is a collaborative program in New Zealand designed to prepare the South Island for the high likelihood of a major Alpine Fault earthquake in the coming decades. AF8 focuses on turning scientific research into practical preparedness and planning tools. By connecting scientists, emergency managers, institutions, and communities, the program develops risk scenarios, training exercises, and awareness initiatives. While it does not respond directly to emergencies, AF8 plays a key role in strengthening local resilience and reducing the potential impact of an inevitable natural disaster.
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AF8 Alpine Fault Magnitude 8
General Information
ISIG
Turning scientific research into practical preparedness and planning tools by connecting different stakeholders.
New Zealand’s South Island is bisected by the Alpine Fault, one of the most active geological structures in the world. Historical records show that it produces massive earthquakes roughly every 300 years, with the last major rupture occurring in 1717. Scientists now estimate a 75% chance of another magnitude 8 or greater earthquake within the next 50 years. This high level of seismic risk, combined with the potential for widespread social, economic, and infrastructural disruption, led to the creation of AF8 a coordinated program to bridge science, emergency management, and community preparedness.
Needs Addressed
The Alpine Fault poses one of the greatest natural hazards to New Zealand, with scientific evidence indicating a 75% probability of a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake occurring within the next 50 years. Such an event would cause severe disruption to infrastructure, communities, and essential services across the South Island. Despite this high risk, translating complex scientific knowledge into practical preparedness for decision-makers and the public remained a major challenge. AF8 was established to address this gap, ensuring that science, emergency management, and community engagement work together to strengthen resilience before disaster strikes.
An Alpine Fault earthquake would disproportionately affect several vulnerable groups. These include rural and remote communities at risk of isolation due to infrastructure damage, elderly people and those with disabilities who may struggle to access assistance, and children and young people, who are more exposed to psychological impacts. Māori communities are also vulnerable, particularly regarding the protection of cultural sites, as well as low-income households that may lack the means to prepare or recover. For this reason, AF8 promotes inclusive communication and preparedness strategies to support those most at risk.
In New Zealand, emergency governance is based on the principle of subsidiarity and follows a multistakeholder model. NEMA provides national coordination, CDEM Groups oversee regional planning, and local authorities manage the immediate response. Communities, including Māori, contribute through response plans and awareness initiatives. The system is regulated by the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002 and the Coordinated Incident Management System, which ensure clear roles and an inclusive approach to resilience.
In New Zealand, emergency preparedness is developed at multiple levels: NEMA coordinates national guidelines and campaigns such as “Get Ready,” CDEM Groups plan regional scenarios and exercises, while local authorities engage communities through response plans. Initiatives like AF8 turn scientific research into practical and educational tools, strengthening collective resilience.
New Zealand has a solid emergency infrastructure, but it remains vulnerable in the event of extreme events such as an earthquake. The main urban centers of the South Island have well-developed hospitals, command centers, and transport networks, supported by modern communication systems and the Coordinated Incident Management System (CIMS), which integrates their operational use. However, the country’s geography makes some rural and remote areas critical, as they risk isolation if roads, bridges, and power networks are damaged. The telecommunications network, although advanced, is also exposed to prolonged outages in the event of widespread failures. To reduce these vulnerabilities, the Government and CDEM Groups invest in redundancy plans, alternative command centers, resource depots, and early warning systems. Overall, the response infrastructure is well-structured and resilient.
The main purpose of stakeholder engagement in AF8 and in New Zealand’s emergency management system is to ensure that science, institutions, and communities work together to strengthen resilience. Actively involving local authorities, CDEM Groups, emergency services, Māori communities, schools, and citizens not only helps disseminate information but also enables the co-creation of preparedness plans, risk scenarios, and educational activities. The goal is to build awareness, shared responsibility, and common operational capacity so that disaster response does not rely solely on central institutions but is rooted at regional and community levels.
Among the main methods are multi-agency workshops and simulations organized by the CDEM Groups, allowing institutions, emergency services, and communities to test common scenarios and procedures. There are also advisory boards and steering groups that bring together scientists, regional authorities, and civil protection representatives. At the community level, engagement takes place through educational roadshows, school programs, public drills, and local consultations, which strengthen the awareness and preparedness of citizens and families. In addition, digital platforms and national communication campaigns such as “Get Ready” are used to disseminate information and practical materials to the wider population.
In the AF8 program and New Zealand’s emergency management system, participants play a significant role in influencing decisions. Local communities contribute through Community Response Plans and feedback gathered during roadshows, drills, and educational events, which are integrated into the regional planning of the CDEM Groups. Local and regional authorities actively co-create risk scenarios and operational strategies together with NEMA and scientists, ensuring that solutions are realistic and grounded in territorial needs. Māori communities also have an important influence, particularly in protecting cultural heritage and adapting preparedness strategies to local contexts. In this way, decision-making is not top-down but shared, and final choices reflect broad, multi-level input from both institutional and community actors.
AF8 strengthens long-term resilience through a combination of training, education, and co-created strategies. Capacity-building activities include multi-agency workshops, drills, and simulations that allow institutions, emergency services, and communities to develop shared operational skills. Educational programs and roadshows make scientific knowledge accessible, turning citizens, including students and Māori communities, into informed actors capable of contributing to preparedness. Community Response Plans further embed decision-making capacity at the local level, supporting autonomy even in times of isolation. In the long run, this model reduces dependence on central intervention, promotes inclusive governance, and ensures that acquired skills are passed on and adapted to future generations, thereby reinforcing collective resilience.
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Implementation
AF8 stands out as a “boundary organisation” that brings together science, institutions, and communities to address the Alpine Fault risk. Its main innovations include the AF8 Hazard Scenario, which provides a scientific basis for planning, and the strong involvement of regional CDEM Groups. The program also emphasizes public communication and education through the Roadshow and digital resources such as StoryMaps and school materials. With its 2022–2025 strategy, AF8 has evolved from a response-focused project to an integrated program of science, planning, and community engagement, consolidating a unique and inclusive approach to resilience.
English
The AF8 program is led by the six Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups of the South Island, which represent the regional authorities responsible for civil defence planning and coordination. Governance is supported by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and a Steering Group including emergency managers, scientists, and public representatives. AF8 also collaborates with research institutes such as QuakeCoRE and Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, as well as universities and local communities, acting as a boundary organisation that integrates science, institutions, and society.
The South Island CDEM Groups have established experience in emergency planning and management under the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002, coordinating multi-agency exercises and response plans. NEMA provides national support with expertise in managing complex crises, while scientific institutes such as QuakeCoRE and Resilience to Nature’s Challenges contribute advanced research on seismic risk. This combination gives AF8 a solid foundation of operational and scientific expertise in Disaster Risk Management.
- Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups: the six regional groups of the South Island
- National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA): national coordination and governance
- QuakeCoRE: earthquake resilience research centre
- Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC): national research programme on natural hazards
- Universities and researchers: scientific and academic support
- Local authorities (councils): territorial planning and implementation
- Māori communities: cultural and local contributions
- Schools and educational institutions: involved in AF8’s educational programs and resources
- Emergency services: police, fire, health, volunteers
- Community groups and associations: local support and community response plans
- Scientific modelling: development of credible Alpine Fault earthquake scenarios as the foundation for planning.
- Operational planning: translation of scenarios into response plans by CDEM Groups, NEMA, and scientific partners, with clear priorities and responsibilities.
- Multi-agency workshops & exercises: testing procedures, strengthening coordination, and building shared capacity.
- Public communication & education: outreach through the AF8 Roadshow, school programs, and digital resources to raise awareness and preparedness.
- Continuous evaluation & updates: integrating stakeholder and community feedback to refine plans and reinforce resilience over time.
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AF8 was launched in 2016 with the production of the AF8 Hazard Scenario, which provided a credible scientific description of a potential magnitude 8 earthquake along the Alpine Fault and served as a basis for regional planning. As the program evolved, the Programme Strategy 2022–25 was established, marking the transition from a project to a structured programme. The strategy identifies three main areas of work: Science Modelling, to update and develop scientific scenarios; Response Planning, to support multi-agency coordination; and Community Engagement & Education, to promote awareness and community involvement.
Experience of the Implementing Organisation in DRM
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Participation Results
The experience of AF8 has shown that translating science into practical tools is essential to make research truly useful for communities and institutions. Another key takeaway is the importance of a multistakeholder approach, integrating local governments, civil defence, Māori communities, researchers, and citizens in a shared process. The programme has also highlighted that continuous community engagement through education and awareness activities strengthens resilience and response capacity. Finally, the transition from project to structured programme demonstrated the need for long-term strategies, with review and update cycles that ensure adaptability and sustainability.
AF8 has faced several challenges throughout its development. One of the main ones has been the complexity of translating scientific research into practical tools for emergency planning; this was addressed through its role as a boundary organisation, integrating scientists, authorities, and communities into a common language. Another challenge has been engaging communities in the context of a rare yet highly probable future risk; to tackle this, the programme developed communication and awareness initiatives such as the Roadshow and school-based educational resources. Finally, the transition from project to programme required organisational and governance adaptation: with the Programme Strategy 2022–25, AF8 formalised its structure, defining three areas of work (Science Modelling, Response Planning, Community Engagement & Education) that enable more integrated and sustainable management over time.
The main risk addressed by AF8 is a magnitude 8 earthquake along the Alpine Fault, with an estimated 75% probability of occurring within the next 50 years. To mitigate this, the programme developed the AF8 Hazard Scenario, which provides a detailed scientific description of expected impacts and serves as a basis for regional planning. Mitigation measures include multi-agency planning coordinated by the CDEM Groups, the development of regional Response Plans, and the use of the Coordinated Incident Management System (CIMS) to ensure a common operational approach. At the community level, AF8 promotes preparedness and awareness through the Roadshow, school resources, and digital materials, strengthening the ability of families and schools to respond to an emergency. Finally, the programme adopts a cyclical review approach: scenarios and plans are regularly updated to incorporate new scientific evidence and community feedback, ensuring a dynamic and adaptive risk management strategy.
Risk & Mitigation Plan
Scalability and Sustainability
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